4 datasets found

We construct a latent employment estimate for the U.S. which both reconciles the information from separate payroll and household surveys, and incorporates the preliminary data...

In this paper, we replicate the main results of previous research showing that the use of the yield spread in a probit model can predict recessions better than the Survey of...

Successful forecasting models strike a balance between parsimony and flexibility. This is often achieved by employing suitable shrinkage priors that penalize model complexity...

In this paper we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ...