Density Forecasts With Midas Models (replication data)

DOI

We propose a parametric block wild bootstrap approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. First, Monte Carlo simulations show that predictive densities for the various MIDAS models derived from the block wild bootstrap approach are more accurate in terms of coverage rates than predictive densities derived from either a residual-based bootstrap approach or by drawing errors from a normal distribution. This result holds whether the data-generating errors are normally independently distributed, serially correlated, heteroskedastic or a mixture of normal distributions. Second, we evaluate density forecasts for quarterly US real output growth in an empirical exercise, exploiting information from typical monthly and weekly series. We show that the block wild bootstrapping approach, applied to the various MIDAS regressions, produces predictive densities for US real output growth that are well calibrated. Moreover, relative accuracy, measured in terms of the logarithmic score, improves for the various MIDAS specifications as more information becomes available.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022326.0703868080
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775459
Provenance
Creator Aastveit, Knut Are; Foroni, Claudia; Ravazzolo, Francesco
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2017
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics