This data contains quantified estimations of seaborne imports and exports (2010-2050) based on four future climate policy-related trade scenarios. The scenarios anticipate volumes and patterns of future international maritime trade consistent with high and low levels of global CO2 mitigation alongside associated climate impacts and socio-economic development hypotheses. The trade scenarios cover nearly all seaborne traded commodities transported by three main vessel types (dry bulk, wet bulk, and containers) and are quantified at country and commodity levels over decadal time steps.The aim of the Shipping in Changing Climates (SCC) project is to create an enduring, multidisciplinary and independent research community strongly linked to industry and capable of informing the policy making process by developing new knowledge and understanding on the subject of the shipping system, its energy efficiency and emissions, and its transition to a low carbon, more resilient future. It is a multi-university, multi-disciplinary consortium of leading UK academic institutions focused on addressing the interconnected research questions that arise from considering shipping's possible response over the next few decades due to changes in (i) climate (sea level rise, storm frequency), (ii) regulatory climate (mitigation and adaptation policy) and (iii) macroeconomic climate (increased trade, differing trade patterns, higher energy prices). Building on RCUK Energy programme's substantial investment in the Low Carbon Shipping and High Seas projects, this research provides crucial input into long-term strategic planning (commercial and policy) for shipping, in order to enable the sector to transition the next few decades with minimum disruption of the essential global services that it provides. Shipping is a global industry and its challenges must therefore be considered in a global context. The project therefore concentrates on the application of global modelling and analysis for understanding the impact of a changing global climate and associated policies. This is based on three interacting research themes: (1) ship as a system (understanding the scope for greater supply side energy efficiency), (2) trade and transport demand (understanding the trends and drivers for transport demand) and (3) transitions and evolution (understanding transport supply/demand interactions). The research undertaken is both quantitative and qualitative, applying for the first time new data and modelling techniques across the research themes.

A full description of the methodology used to create this data can be found in Walsh et al. (2019) 'Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates'. Marine Policy, 106, 18 (see Related Resources)