Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive (replication data)

DOI

Point forecasts can be interpreted as functionals (i.e., point summaries) of predictive distributions. We extend methodology for the identification of the functional based on time series of point forecasts and associated realizations. Focusing on state-dependent quantiles and expectiles, we provide a generalized method of moments estimator for the functional, along with tests of optimality under general joint hypotheses of functional relationships and information bases. Our tests are more flexible, and in simulations better calibrated and more powerful than existing solutions. In empirical examples, economic growth forecasts and model output for precipitation are indicative of overstatement in anticipation of extreme events.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022327.0719348060
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:775193
Provenance
Creator Schmidt, Patrick; Katzfuss, Matthias; Gneiting, Tilmann
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2021
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics