An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach (replication data)

DOI

The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts.

Identifier
DOI https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022319.0713934542
Metadata Access https://www.da-ra.de/oaip/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai:oai.da-ra.de:776043
Provenance
Creator Clements, Michael P.; Joutz, Frederick L.; Stekler, Herman O.
Publisher ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Publication Year 2007
Rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY); Download
OpenAccess true
Contact ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Representation
Language English
Resource Type Collection
Discipline Economics